The End of the Republican Party

I said if

You're thinking of

Being my baby

It doesn't matter if you're black or white 

I said if

You're thinking of

Being my brother

It doesn't matter if you're black or white 

          Michael Jackson 1991

Right now the country is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. Congress is split 1-1, and virtually everyone predicts that the upcoming presidential election will be tight (For my prediction, see here).  What you seldom hear discussed is who will be winning elections in the long term, say 20-40 years out.  I think the reason for this is most people feel like accurate predictions cannot be forecast that far into the future, and this particular discussion has to focus on race, which most people feel uncomfortable talking about.  I think you can make an accurate prediction, however, and I'll blog about anything.

          The Republican Party is going to lose virtually every election in the future, and that is based mainly on the birthrate of blacks and Hispanics.  The two demographic groups in the country that have the highest birthrates are blacks and Hispanics. You may have read the recent report showing that for the first time more than half of all new births in this country are from minorities.  The demographic experts tell us that whites will be the minority in the US by 2050.

          This is fantastic news for Democrats, and cataclysmic for Republicans.  The reason is simple; blacks and Hispanics vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.  More than 60% of Hispanics usually vote Democrat (although Bush did much better than this in 2004) and close to 90% of African-Americans typically vote Democrat.  I may or may not do a blog about why I think that's the case, but I don't think these voting patterns are going to change. 

          The bottom line is that Republicans better enjoy their election victories now, because they're not going to last.

          The interesting thing is, as the country becomes racially much more diverse, we may ultimately become more politically homogenous.  The Republicans will realize that without agreeing to more liberal positions that the Democrats favor, such as gay rights, Dream Act immigration reform, etc., they will have little chance of attracting new voters. Don't be surprised if by midcentury, and maybe a lot earlier than that, this country is much more homogenously liberal, at least on social issues.

Have a good night everyone.

JR