Presidential Prediction

              One night and one more time

Thanks for the memories

Even though they weren't so great 

I'm looking forward to the future

But my eyesight is going bad

And this crystal ball

It's always cloudy except for

When you look into the past

          Fall Out Boy 2007 

Predictions are only impressive when you correctly predict an upset, or take the minority view.  There is absolutely nothing special about being right when you predict the favorite to win.  It's like in the preseason saying that the Yankees will make the playoffs.  Well done.  So I can't really take any credit for correctly predicting that Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee.  At the time I wrote that blog, he was the favorite.  A slight favorite in a crowded field, but a favorite nonetheless.

So now we've got Romney versus Obama.  It's going to be bloody.  It's gonna get ugly.  It's going to be beautiful.  It's a classic matchup of diametrically opposed worldviews.  The early polls have Obama as a slight favorite. I'm predicting Romney will win.

All presidential elections are determined by the votes of 20% of the voters, maybe 10%. The independents.  People like me.  As exciting as this race will be from an intellectual standpoint of what's best for society, a limited Jeffersonian type government or European-style big government, at the end of the day I think it will all be about the economy.  Everything else will be noise.

I think this is what will ultimately cost Obama the election.  A true unemployment rate of over 15%.  A debt of over 16 trillion.  An understanding that the government is lying when they say inflation is only 3 to 4% a year (don't worry, that blog is coming).  I simply think that there will be too many independents that decide the last four years have progressively gotten worse for them financially.

A few things will be different about this election.  It will be by far the most expensive election ever, with the Super-PACs running wild.  I think you'll see more character assassination than ever before.  You'll also see more of a focus on banal irrelevancies, due to the now 24-7 constant stream of news coverage and blogging from the Internet. 

At the end of the day, I don't think it'll matter.  People want to work.  People want to make money.  People want to feel good about themselves, their families, and their families’ future.  I just don't think enough independent voters feel that way right now.

I don't think Obama gets rehired.  Romney is going to be our next President.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

         

Calling all Asians

I know they're sayin' that we've gone lazy
To tell you the truth we've all seen better days
Don't need no fast buck lame duck profits for fun
Quick trick plans, take the money and run
We need long term, slow burn, getting it done
And some straight talking, hard working son of a gun.

                                Styx 1981

I'm old-school.  I still read newspapers.  Been doing it for decades.  I started noticing that whenever an article discussed anything having to do with racial differences, it tended to focus on Caucasians, African-Americans, and Hispanics.  Asians were only occasionally mentioned, probably because they are a small minority group, about 5% of the US population.  But I also noticed one other thing whenever they were mentioned; they always seemed to end up on top.  Crime rate? Asians were the lowest.  Average income? Asians were the highest.  IQ? Highest.  Teenage pregnancy rates? Lowest. You get the idea. There's plenty more.

So those are the objective facts.  But how about subjectively? I hope you don't mind if I stereotype, but I figure we’re all friends here.  In my experience it sure seems that Asians are smart, family-oriented, and hard-working; at a level way, way above average. They are givers to society, which is good considering we have too many takers.

So how do we start rebuilding America, a country in decline if there ever was one? We need more Asians. 

So I have a two-part homework assignment for you.  First, every time you see an Asian couple with one or two children, politely ask them to have one or two more.  If they don't feel comfortable being approached in this way and threaten to call the police, calmly explain to them that they have a duty to their country.  Offering to pay for a romantic, candlelit dinner is also a nice touch.  For the record, I do this about an hour a day.

Second, call a friendly representative from US Citizenship and Immigration Services.  Tell them that you love diversity and all that crap, but for the short term you would prefer a massive inflow of Asians.  Call me if you're not exactly sure what to say, I also spend about two hours a day doing this.

And if my plan for America doesn't work? Well, I've got a thing for Jews too.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

The War Mirage

We met as soul mates on Parris Island, we left as inmates from an asylum

And we were sharp, as sharp as knives, and we were so gung ho to lay down our lives

We came in spastic like tameless horses, we left in plastic as numbered corpses 

And it was dark, so dark at night night night night

And we held onto each other, like brother to brother

We promised our mothers we’d write

                                                            Billy Joel  1982

             I don't like government.  But you knew that already.  My biggest complaint is that whenever they get involved to try and fix a problem, they make the situation worse.  As Ronald Reagan said, “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" But what if you put in time and money into something that doesn't make it worse, but doesn't have any effect at all? That might not be as bad, but it's frustrating nonetheless. 

          Now let's add some dead bodies to the equation.  The troubling thing about our recent history with war, is that it sure looks like ultimately the same thing would've happened whether we fought or not.

We ended up fighting in Korea and Vietnam to counter the spread of communism, but it largely collapsed on its own.  Historians can debate whether the buildup of weapons championed by Ronald Reagan was the predominant cause of the fall of communism in the Soviet Union and Europe, but fighting these wars was not.  Communism has turned out to be both a morally and economically bankrupt system of government.  I think it's just a matter of time before the always-on-the-edge-of-starvation North Koreans unify with the democratic South, and even communist China has a far less restrictive free enterprise system than they used to.

Similarly, we have fought two wars in Iraq and one in Afghanistan for a bunch of jumbled reasons, but the main one seems to be to stop the spread of fundamentalist Islam. But look at the Arab spring.  As it turns out, Muslims like freedom and not being tortured by dictators also. Who knew? I think in the long run, say 25-50 years out, all these Middle East countries will be largely democratic. In other words, I don't think any of these wars changed what would've happened without a shot being fired.

Of course the criticism of this analysis is that hindsight is 20-20, that there's no way that we could have predicted communist or Islamic dictatorships from collapsing without military involvement. And that's true to a point.  But maybe we have to have more faith in Western ideals and economics, and understand that people will strive and die for them without it being forced upon them.

It's too late to go back and undo the deaths and disfigurement of American soldiers, but it's a good question to ask in the future.  When contemplating yet another war, is our ultimate objective going to happen with or without our involvement?

Have a good night everyone.

JR