Presidential Prediction

              One night and one more time

Thanks for the memories

Even though they weren't so great 

I'm looking forward to the future

But my eyesight is going bad

And this crystal ball

It's always cloudy except for

When you look into the past

          Fall Out Boy 2007 

Predictions are only impressive when you correctly predict an upset, or take the minority view.  There is absolutely nothing special about being right when you predict the favorite to win.  It's like in the preseason saying that the Yankees will make the playoffs.  Well done.  So I can't really take any credit for correctly predicting that Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee.  At the time I wrote that blog, he was the favorite.  A slight favorite in a crowded field, but a favorite nonetheless.

So now we've got Romney versus Obama.  It's going to be bloody.  It's gonna get ugly.  It's going to be beautiful.  It's a classic matchup of diametrically opposed worldviews.  The early polls have Obama as a slight favorite. I'm predicting Romney will win.

All presidential elections are determined by the votes of 20% of the voters, maybe 10%. The independents.  People like me.  As exciting as this race will be from an intellectual standpoint of what's best for society, a limited Jeffersonian type government or European-style big government, at the end of the day I think it will all be about the economy.  Everything else will be noise.

I think this is what will ultimately cost Obama the election.  A true unemployment rate of over 15%.  A debt of over 16 trillion.  An understanding that the government is lying when they say inflation is only 3 to 4% a year (don't worry, that blog is coming).  I simply think that there will be too many independents that decide the last four years have progressively gotten worse for them financially.

A few things will be different about this election.  It will be by far the most expensive election ever, with the Super-PACs running wild.  I think you'll see more character assassination than ever before.  You'll also see more of a focus on banal irrelevancies, due to the now 24-7 constant stream of news coverage and blogging from the Internet. 

At the end of the day, I don't think it'll matter.  People want to work.  People want to make money.  People want to feel good about themselves, their families, and their families’ future.  I just don't think enough independent voters feel that way right now.

I don't think Obama gets rehired.  Romney is going to be our next President.

Have a good night everyone.

JR