The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to heart
The waiting is the hardest part
Tom Petty 1981
Since the Iowa caucus is tomorrow night, which signifies the start of the voting for the Republican Presidential nominee, I thought we would interrupt our regularly scheduled gold program and do a quick blog to handicap the field. This has been far and away the most entertaining race and group of candidates that I've ever seen. After the never ending string of debates, we’re finally ready to roll. For the record, I'm an independent with libertarian tendencies. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Michele Bachmann– A consistent social conservative, she's articulate and smart. However, after an initial rise in the polls she has not been able to connect with Republican voters. I think she's going to be one of the first to have to drop out of the race. Odds of winning the nomination – none.
Rick Santorum – Ditto for what I said about Michele Bachmann. The difference is he is peaking at the right time, and many pundits expect him to win Iowa. However, I think this is due to the high concentration of evangelicals that will be voting there, and I don't expect his support to be broad-based in the rest of the country. He may stay in the race a little bit longer because he now has the mo, but I can't see him going the distance. Odds of winning the nomination – slim.
Rick Perry – watching Rick Perry at the debates was like writing a review for a movie: “It made me laugh, it made me cry…” This guy makes Bush look like a genius. However, he was smart enough to create pro-business conditions in Texas, and his record on job creation is better than anyone else's. I keep hearing how much money his organization has, so he can keep running ads and will probably stay in the race a little longer. But after those debates it’s not going to happen. Odds of winning the nomination - slim to none, but guys named Slim usually aren't intelligent either.
John Huntsman - I like him. He did an excellent job as governor of Utah, and was the ambassador to China. Check out some YouTube clips of him speaking fluent Mandarin Chinese. He's highly intelligent, but so far has been almost completely ignored by Republican voters. He picked a bad year to run; the Tea Party/right wing of the party grabbed hold of it this time around. He’s too liberal for their taste, like when he committed the mortal sin of acknowledging that global warming is real. I'd like to see him run as a third-party candidate, but that would probably hand the election to Obama. Odds of winning the nomination - slim, but if he breaks out in New Hampshire anything could happen.
Newt Gingrich – I always form an opinion as to whether I think a candidate would make a good President. He's the only one I can remember that I have absolutely no idea. He's completely unpredictable, a walking contradiction. He’s brilliant, but has flip-flopped on so many issues that it wears you out. When he was Speaker of the House of Representatives he was a hothead who was disliked by many in his own party, but now he’s trying to reinvent himself as the calm elder statesman who is above the infighting. As his poll numbers have dropped due to all the negative ads against him, expect him to return to the feisty Newt. He's the best debater of any politician in my lifetime, and I would love to see him debate Obama. But man does this guy have a lot of baggage. Odds of winning the nomination – decent.
Ron Paul - The most fascinating politician that I've ever seen. I’m going to do a few blogs just about him, and since he’s going to stay in the race until the very end I've got plenty of time. I'll keep it short here: He’s a principled man with 100% consistent libertarian and Constitutional values. Unfortunately, the one major issue that I partially disagree with him on, Israel, is of the utmost importance to me. Four years ago when he ran he was laughed at, but always had a fanatical 10% following. Now he's got a fanatical 20% to 25%, and no one's laughing. The country is starting to move towards his views. Don’t be shocked if he runs as a 3rd party candidate; freedom resonates with Democrats too. Odds of winning the nomination - decent.
Mitt Romney - I think he will win. At the end of the day, expect him to be the last man standing. He's an articulate and strong debater, but for some reason has had difficulty conveying the fact that he's been a success at everything he’s done; multimillionaire businessman, governor of Massachusetts, head of the Olympics. I actually think he would make a fairly good President. If he gets the nomination he can unchain the Tea Party shackles and slide over to his center/right leanings, which is where the country is. Odds of winning the nomination – strong.
Have a good night everyone.
JR
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