Show Me Everything

          Just give me what I know is mine,

People do you hear me, just give me the sign,

It ain't much I'm asking, if you want the truth,

Here's to the future, for the dreams of youth,

I want it all, I want it all, I want it all, and I want it now. 

          Queen 1989

I need to rant tonight.  I really hate to do this because as I was rereading some of my blogs, I realized that I sometimes sounded like an angry young man. That's unfortunate because A) I've never been happier, and B) I'm not young anymore. 

But I'm not happy about the whole Netflix situation.  No, not the part about them recently raising prices.  Kind of the opposite, actually. 

Right now the technology exists to instantly stream every movie and every television show in the history of the world to your TV.  Whatever you want to watch, at any time, that’s ever existed, on your TV.  Right.  Now.  It's one of the more amazing innovations that has ever occurred in entertainment, and has surprisingly not gotten the amount of attention that it deserves. 

          So let's take the market leader, Netflix.  Instead of having everything immediately, the large majority of movies can’t be streamed.  Some aren't available in any format.  For the others you have to wait for the CD in the mail, and then wait for Netflix to receive the disk.  The Postal Service is going to disappear soon, but for now I'm not such a big fan of relying on them.  The whole process is annoying, especially when you realize there's a better way.

          So why isn't everything streamed? Movies are big business, and right now the studios and companies like Netflix can't figure out a way to make everybody financially happy.  I don't remember the exact numbers, but the studios make far more on a CD rental than a streamed rental. 

          Whatever.  Just get a deal done.  I'm guessing there are a lot of people who would be willing to pay a lot of money to be able to stream everything.  I'm one of them.  An arm and a leg.  Anything but my firstborn.  Seriously, this has got to be worth at least as much as your cable bill, right?

Why is this so important to me?  Because I'm in stage 2 of the three stages of life, which I just thought of 8 seconds ago.  Stage 1 is when you're single, and are either cool or think you're cool.  Stage 3 is when all the kids have moved out of the house, and you actually have some free time again. 

I'm in stage 2, the young kid stage, when between work and family you're in a constant state of exhaustion.  Look, I'm not complaining; like I said, I've never been happier or more fulfilled.  But this is the stage when after work, putting your kids to bed, and taking care of all your other obligations after that, you just don't get out much.  Movies on a big screen at home are a nice alternative.  I would say in the seven years since my oldest was born, I've watched more movies than I have in the rest of my life combined.

So work it out Netflix, or whatever company wants to crush them.  We’re waiting.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

         

Presidential Prediction

              One night and one more time

Thanks for the memories

Even though they weren't so great 

I'm looking forward to the future

But my eyesight is going bad

And this crystal ball

It's always cloudy except for

When you look into the past

          Fall Out Boy 2007 

Predictions are only impressive when you correctly predict an upset, or take the minority view.  There is absolutely nothing special about being right when you predict the favorite to win.  It's like in the preseason saying that the Yankees will make the playoffs.  Well done.  So I can't really take any credit for correctly predicting that Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee.  At the time I wrote that blog, he was the favorite.  A slight favorite in a crowded field, but a favorite nonetheless.

So now we've got Romney versus Obama.  It's going to be bloody.  It's gonna get ugly.  It's going to be beautiful.  It's a classic matchup of diametrically opposed worldviews.  The early polls have Obama as a slight favorite. I'm predicting Romney will win.

All presidential elections are determined by the votes of 20% of the voters, maybe 10%. The independents.  People like me.  As exciting as this race will be from an intellectual standpoint of what's best for society, a limited Jeffersonian type government or European-style big government, at the end of the day I think it will all be about the economy.  Everything else will be noise.

I think this is what will ultimately cost Obama the election.  A true unemployment rate of over 15%.  A debt of over 16 trillion.  An understanding that the government is lying when they say inflation is only 3 to 4% a year (don't worry, that blog is coming).  I simply think that there will be too many independents that decide the last four years have progressively gotten worse for them financially.

A few things will be different about this election.  It will be by far the most expensive election ever, with the Super-PACs running wild.  I think you'll see more character assassination than ever before.  You'll also see more of a focus on banal irrelevancies, due to the now 24-7 constant stream of news coverage and blogging from the Internet. 

At the end of the day, I don't think it'll matter.  People want to work.  People want to make money.  People want to feel good about themselves, their families, and their families’ future.  I just don't think enough independent voters feel that way right now.

I don't think Obama gets rehired.  Romney is going to be our next President.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

         

Calling all Asians

I know they're sayin' that we've gone lazy
To tell you the truth we've all seen better days
Don't need no fast buck lame duck profits for fun
Quick trick plans, take the money and run
We need long term, slow burn, getting it done
And some straight talking, hard working son of a gun.

                                Styx 1981

I'm old-school.  I still read newspapers.  Been doing it for decades.  I started noticing that whenever an article discussed anything having to do with racial differences, it tended to focus on Caucasians, African-Americans, and Hispanics.  Asians were only occasionally mentioned, probably because they are a small minority group, about 5% of the US population.  But I also noticed one other thing whenever they were mentioned; they always seemed to end up on top.  Crime rate? Asians were the lowest.  Average income? Asians were the highest.  IQ? Highest.  Teenage pregnancy rates? Lowest. You get the idea. There's plenty more.

So those are the objective facts.  But how about subjectively? I hope you don't mind if I stereotype, but I figure we’re all friends here.  In my experience it sure seems that Asians are smart, family-oriented, and hard-working; at a level way, way above average. They are givers to society, which is good considering we have too many takers.

So how do we start rebuilding America, a country in decline if there ever was one? We need more Asians. 

So I have a two-part homework assignment for you.  First, every time you see an Asian couple with one or two children, politely ask them to have one or two more.  If they don't feel comfortable being approached in this way and threaten to call the police, calmly explain to them that they have a duty to their country.  Offering to pay for a romantic, candlelit dinner is also a nice touch.  For the record, I do this about an hour a day.

Second, call a friendly representative from US Citizenship and Immigration Services.  Tell them that you love diversity and all that crap, but for the short term you would prefer a massive inflow of Asians.  Call me if you're not exactly sure what to say, I also spend about two hours a day doing this.

And if my plan for America doesn't work? Well, I've got a thing for Jews too.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

The War Mirage

We met as soul mates on Parris Island, we left as inmates from an asylum

And we were sharp, as sharp as knives, and we were so gung ho to lay down our lives

We came in spastic like tameless horses, we left in plastic as numbered corpses 

And it was dark, so dark at night night night night

And we held onto each other, like brother to brother

We promised our mothers we’d write

                                                            Billy Joel  1982

             I don't like government.  But you knew that already.  My biggest complaint is that whenever they get involved to try and fix a problem, they make the situation worse.  As Ronald Reagan said, “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" But what if you put in time and money into something that doesn't make it worse, but doesn't have any effect at all? That might not be as bad, but it's frustrating nonetheless. 

          Now let's add some dead bodies to the equation.  The troubling thing about our recent history with war, is that it sure looks like ultimately the same thing would've happened whether we fought or not.

We ended up fighting in Korea and Vietnam to counter the spread of communism, but it largely collapsed on its own.  Historians can debate whether the buildup of weapons championed by Ronald Reagan was the predominant cause of the fall of communism in the Soviet Union and Europe, but fighting these wars was not.  Communism has turned out to be both a morally and economically bankrupt system of government.  I think it's just a matter of time before the always-on-the-edge-of-starvation North Koreans unify with the democratic South, and even communist China has a far less restrictive free enterprise system than they used to.

Similarly, we have fought two wars in Iraq and one in Afghanistan for a bunch of jumbled reasons, but the main one seems to be to stop the spread of fundamentalist Islam. But look at the Arab spring.  As it turns out, Muslims like freedom and not being tortured by dictators also. Who knew? I think in the long run, say 25-50 years out, all these Middle East countries will be largely democratic. In other words, I don't think any of these wars changed what would've happened without a shot being fired.

Of course the criticism of this analysis is that hindsight is 20-20, that there's no way that we could have predicted communist or Islamic dictatorships from collapsing without military involvement. And that's true to a point.  But maybe we have to have more faith in Western ideals and economics, and understand that people will strive and die for them without it being forced upon them.

It's too late to go back and undo the deaths and disfigurement of American soldiers, but it's a good question to ask in the future.  When contemplating yet another war, is our ultimate objective going to happen with or without our involvement?

Have a good night everyone.

JR

College Basketball Sucks

            Born in the Valley and raised in the trees

Of Western Kentucky on wobbly knees

With Mama beside you to help you along 

And it's run for the roses as fast as you can

Your fate is delivered, your moment at hand

It’s a chance of a lifetime, in a lifetime chance

And it's high time you joined in the dance

                           Dan Fogelberg 1981

This all started in 1995. And you can blame Kevin Garnett if you want.  He jumped straight from high school to the NBA, and although a few had done it before him, he started a stampede.  Any kid with serious talent made the move.  Although the NBA in 2005 instituted a rule that effectively made high school players go to college for a year, the damage was done.  The quality of play at the college level collapsed, to the point that I found it unwatchable. 

          Every so often, if the national championship game has a particularly interesting storyline, like Duke-Butler, I’ll try to watch it.  This lasts about 10 minutes.  Part of my boredom stems from the fact that as the college game has gotten weaker, the pros have kept getting better and better.  I’m an NBA addict; I could probably name every player in the league.  The skill level is off the charts.  They are athletic freaks, generally regarded as the world’s greatest athletes. 

          The huge majority of starting college players never play a minute in the NBA.  Even the All-Americans are usually mediocre or worse pros.  Most of the rookies struggle in the league.  Look at a typical NBA roster.  No one good stayed in college.  The NBA game is beautifully complex.  This is why all the college coaches who try to coach in the pros get crushed and come running back to college (By the way, this is what happened to Pitino.  Hey genius, you can’t run a full court press in the pros.  You know why?  The players are too damn good.)

Which brings me to the UK-UL national semifinal game this weekend.  I grew up in Louisville, so this one for me brings back good memories.  I love the city, and often go back with my family.  For some strange reason I was the only one of my friends who grew up rooting for UK.  Until 1993.  That's the year I went with some buddies to New Orleans for the final 4.  Kentucky lost in the semifinals, and I have never seen more adults openly crying.  It was embarrassing.  All the pretty girls that weekend seemed to be from the University of Kansas.  We told them we were from Kansas.

But I digress.  Here’s my advice.  Watch the game.  Then watch an NBA game the next week.  You will see things in the first 3 minutes that you will never see in a college game.  Trust me. 

          Am I a basketball snob?  Of course.  I’m not an opera snob, or a ballet snob, or a wine tasting snob, because I know nothing about them.  It wouldn’t matter much if you had me watch the Metropolitan opera or Louisville opera (actually, does Louisville have an opera?), because I probably couldn’t tell the difference.  But like a lot people in the US, I grew up watching basketball.  Anyone who’s watched more than 10 games in their life can spot the drastic difference between the kids and the pros.  It’s like the classic line from Rounders: “If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker”. 

          Look, life's too short to waste time on anything, whether bad sports, entertainment, food etc. Watching college instead of the NBA is like loading up on Spam when you can have filet mignon for the same price, or driving the Chevy instead of the Benz.  There's no laws against it, but why would you?

          Have a good night everyone.

JR

           

High School Reunion

Well we’re waiting here in Allentown
For the Pennsylvania we never found
For the promises our teachers gave
If we worked hard
If we behaved.

So the graduations hang on the wall
But they never really helped us at all
No they never taught us what was real
Iron or Coke
Chromium steel.

Billy Joel 1982

Last year I went to my 25th high school reunion. There were two obvious stars there. One was an Emmy winning war correspondent, the other a CFO bringing it for over a million a year. Back in the day I was friends with both. After the reunion I started thinking about whether 25 years ago there would've been any way to predict their success. Although they were both smart, neither took the advanced program classes or had a reputation of being a straight A student.

I think the answer is no, that you can't accurately predict long term achievement based on what happens in school. Look, I don't doubt the importance of good grades and scholastic achievement. I'm sure I will be as anal as anyone when it comes to checking my kid’s report cards. But everything I've seen and read during my own life leads me to the conclusion that scholastic success is just one piece of the puzzle. To get to the extreme right of the Bell curve, other factors are equally as important. In my high school friends’ case, for one it appeared to be risk-taking, aggression, and charisma, while for the other an intense work ethic and smooth as silk personality didn't hurt. Depending on the job, I could probably name 15 other factors that would be important for success.

Again, I don't downplay scholastic achievement. Studies show that people with advanced degrees make more money than college graduates, who make more money than high school graduates, who make more money than high school dropouts. But at the end of the day, it's just not enough. On the one hand this is comforting, because if a kid has any difficulties in school it doesn't mean that his future is still not halogen bright. By the time school is over we’re barely out of the 2^nd inning. On the other hand, there's a little pressure in knowing that for the huge majority scholastic success by itself won't get it done.

So as a parent, I'm going with a scorched-earth policy. Although I realize that parents only have a limited effect in all this, I’m going to try and emphasize those 15 or so factors that I think lead to ultimate success, Hey, I may even blog about them. I'll just hope that God gives my kids the brains to execute them.

Have a good night everyone.

JR

Bell Curve Theory of Life

          Oh it's such a perfect day

          I'm glad I spent it with you

          Oh such a perfect day

          You just keep me hanging on   

     

                      Lou Reed 1972

I have what you would call a bell curve theory of life, although I don't really know how to define what a bell curve is.  You’ve probably seen one.  It looks like a big mountain that slopes down to the left and the right.  The idea is that most things and people in life fall in the middle, right around the peak of the mountain.  The real action though, at least in my mind, is on the extreme right.

Here's why a bell curve has shaped my life so fully:  I long ago realized that the great majority of things that a person encounters in life (people, services, products, etc.) are average or worse.  Average is code word for mediocre, or right in the center of the bell curve.  It would be easy to be discouraged by this thought and take on an internet hater’s philosophy; everything sucks.

Although this technically may be 80% true, my focus on the bell curve and life in general is that dip in the mountain: there is greatness out there.  Knowing this leads me to a relentless search to find those exceptions, even in seemingly mundane things.  It's why I continuously switch until I find the right person for the job: lawn care (fired 3 people until I found someone I was happy with); computer repair (2 people), dentist (2 people), AC guy (1 person), handyman (4 people), etc.  It's why I won't see a movie until I've run it by Rotten Tomatos.  It's why I will overspend if necessary to get the right secretary.  You get the idea.

I do this for a few reasons (if you're thinking because I’m anal, well yes, we can count that one also).  It’s hard to settle for second rate service when you know there are people out there that are great.  And once you find what you’re looking for, you can stop looking.  In the long run it saves a lot of time and unhappiness.

One other cause for optimism is technology.  There's always going to be a bell curve, but at the center a lot of technology is still pretty damn good.  My smart phone may be on the right of the mountain and yours in the middle, but I bet you love yours also.  My big screen TV may rate higher than yours, but they're both crystal clear.  For a lot of tech the difference has become negligible. 

            But in the meantime, the search for excellence goes on.  And I'm gonna find it.

Have a good night everyone.

 JR

PS.  By the way, if you like the blog, you can now get an e-mail message sent to you when I post a new one.  Just check out the top right of the blog and enter your e-mail address.  Thanks.