The End of Books

You've been with the professors
And they've all liked your looks
With great lawyers you have
Discussed lepers and crooks
You've been through all of
F. Scott Fitzgerald's books
You're very well read
It's well known.

                             Bob Dylan 1965

About six months ago, I bought an e-reader, the Kindle.  After about 5 minutes of using it, I went upstairs to my wife and told her that paper books would soon completely disappear.  After having read a few more books on it, I still feel that way.

The advantages that an e-reader has are immediately obvious, mainly storage of a massive amount of books on a device that weighs less than a pound.  I thought it was a cool and elegant way to read.  Whenever I've made this prediction of books disappearing to friends who are serious readers, the response is always the same.  They love the feel of the book.  Some like the smell.  All seem confident that while e-readers might be an alternative for some people, paper books aren’t going anywhere, and they will never give up the real thing.

They are and they will.  It’s going to be brutally fast.  I would say most books will be gone within five years, and all of them within 10.  I think that my first grade son will not read one paper book in high school or college, and not because he prefers sports.  I think the e-readers will do to books what CDs did to albums and what digital downloads are doing to CDs.  When a better technology comes along the old one dies pretty quickly.  Don’t believe it?  Come over this weekend and we’ll hang out and talk about it.  We’ll go to Tower Records and head out afterwards to the Verizon Wireless store.  I hear they’ve got some hot new pagers.

Borders is bankrupt.  Barnes & Noble is in financial trouble.  But I think the more interesting concern is not the future of the private companies but the public entities, like the libraries.  I think they’ll be gone soon, but they will be the last to go.  It will make absolutely no sense for the local governments to continue to pay for a massive library, with the huge expense of books, staff, and storage space.  I envision a time when a person walks in a little room that is now the library, with their e-reader, and has any book they want downloaded in a few minutes.  After a certain amount of time, the book will automatically delete.  Actually, now that I think about it, this process will probably be done from home.

My other burning question is what’s going to happen to those people that have walls and walls of books in their house?   I always thought that there was a 50/50 split between those people; half were the really intelligent type and had read everything in the house, and half were just showing off.  I think eventually a roomful of books will look as dated as those grand pianos in the middle of people’s living rooms in the 1970s.  Anyone who was wealthy and cultured was required by federal law to have one.

Have a good night everyone.

                                                                   JR